Why TTF & power prices jumped (week of 12–18 Jan 2026)
The week of 12–18 January 2026 reminded the market that winter pricing isn’t linear. Gas led the move, power followed, and sentiment shifted quickly as forecasts, inventories and global LNG competition aligned in the same direction. At the same time, EU gas storage was reported at roughly 50% full by 18 January (06:00 CET), a level that tends to make every colder forecast update matter more than usual.
By Friday 16 January, the Dutch TTF benchmark was trading around €36–37/MWh, putting it on track for a nearly 30% weekly gain. On the power side, prices were firmer versus the prior week in most major markets, especially early in the week, with Germany and France both posting weekly averages above €100/MWh in AleaSoft’s review of the period.
What happened
TTF’s rally was the headline, but the broader story was winter risk repricing across the stack:
TTF climbed into the mid-€30s/MWh by 16 Jan, with commentary pointing to a near-30% weekly move.
EU storage sat around 50.36% full (575.48 TWh) on 18 Jan 06:00 CET.
Day-ahead power was higher week-on-week in most markets, particularly during the first part of the week, even if daily pricing was choppy.
TTF, electricity: from geopolitics to equities
Before we get into the weather, storage and supply picture, it’s worth flagging the geopolitical backdrop: Europe’s gas market still carries a higher “headline premium” because the system has been rewired since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with heavier reliance on LNG and global balancing. In the week of 12–18 January, that premium was easy to justify, markets were hit by renewed Greenland-related tensions and fresh tariff threats from the U.S., which pushed FX around (the euro weakened) and reminded traders that politics can change the economic outlook quickly. Add broader uncertainty around policy direction and international relations, and risk appetite became more fragile even when equities were still holding up in places: European shares started the week near record territory, while defence names outperformed as investors priced in a more unstable security environment. On top of that, the Iran situation kept energy traders alert because any escalation can feed straight into oil and LNG shipping risk perceptions, and this week’s gas coverage explicitly noted Iran-linked disruption fears as part of the volatility mix (even as tensions later eased).
The primary fundamental catalyst was a shift in the weather narrative. Market coverage highlighted expectations of another late-month cold snap boosting heating demand. That weather risk landed on top of a storage backdrop the market perceived as tight. Reporting during the rally pointed to inventories below ~52%, versus a cited five-year average around 67%, while AGSI figures showed EU storage near 50% by 18 January.
Finally, the global LNG picture added traction. Reuters reported Asia spot LNG prices reaching a six-week high on colder forecasts, reinforcing the idea that Europe would face tougher competition for marginal cargoes as winter risk returned.
Power prices strengthened mainly because of TTF’s increase. Although there are sutructural changes ongoing in the market which make power prices detach from gas that is not the case here (read about it here). Now, in a lot of winter hours, gas-fired plants are the marginal price-setters, so when TTF moves up quickly, on colder weather risk, tight storage, and broader uncertainty, day-ahead power tends to follow. For that week, I don’t see a cleaner driver than “TTF up → power up,” even if smaller factors were in the background.
What to expect next: three scenarios to track
Near-term expectations still come down to two things: how cold it gets (demand) and how much wind shows up. Current market forecasts for the third week of January point to softer prices in most markets, helped by stronger wind in Germany and lower demand in parts of Europe.
Still, with storage around ~50% mid-month, the market remains sensitive, and three paths are worth watching:
Base case: choppy trading as forecasts swing and the market repeatedly reprices end-of-winter storage risk.
Upside risk: colder revisions + tighter LNG competition can reintroduce a risk premium quickly.
Downside relief: stronger wind and softer demand can cool spot power first, then ease gas sentiment if withdrawals slow.
What buyers should do when weeks like this hit
Weeks like this aren’t about “calling the top.” They’re about avoiding rushed and unjustified decisions when headlines hit. The resilient approach is usually boring, but repeatable:
Four practical moves tend to separate resilient buyers from reactive ones:
Pre-define actions (layers, triggers, limits) so decisions don’t get made at peak stress.
Quantify shape exposure (which hours drive cost), especially in a 15-minute market.
Build optionality into supply structures where possible (volume flexibility, index choices, risk limits).
Run an integrated market watch that ties geopolitics + weather + storage + LNG into timing—so you’re acting early, not explaining late.