H1 2026: Europe's Energy Crisis Did Not End: It Changed Shape
Europe’s energy markets entered 2026 with lower prices than the crisis years, but risk has not disappeared. H1 moved from cold-weather demand and record renewable output to heatwaves, low gas storage, LNG competition and renewed geopolitical pressure — creating a market defined by volatility, negative prices and stressed peaks.
The Ocean Is Now an Energy-Market Indicator
Record-high sea-surface temperatures and a strengthening El Niño are turning ocean heat into a key signal for European power buyers. Rising cooling demand, weaker wind, hydro stress and thermal constraints could increase summer electricity price volatility.
TTF Reaches February High as Weather and Gas-for-Power Demand Tighten the Market
European gas prices remained highly weather-sensitive in early February, with TTF reaching a monthly high of €35.7/MWh on 6 February. Low storage, colder forecasts and stronger gas-for-power demand kept the market exposed before later geopolitical shocks.